March 1, 2010

The agenda committee mostly gets the topics it recommends from a perusal of major newspapers in print. For those topics, the committee has agreed to cite the articles from which its topics are derived. As always, club members are invited to suggest discussion topics to the committee.

Topic #1 alleges that the U.S. Treasury contains some $800 billion in gold, at present valuation, and has decided to part with $200 billion. The rationale for the sale did not emerge in the discussion. One participant claims that gold has little intrinsic value.

Topics #2 and #3 involved a parsing of the Second Amendment and the role of precedent before the Supreme Court of the United States. The court is hearing oral arguments these days. I wonder about the effect of the 5-4 Citizens United ruling removing limits on corporate campaign spending.

NY Times: Supreme Court Remains Divided Over Gun Control

February 15, 2010

Topic #1:

Originally in August, 2005 a policy to extract oil from the Bakken Oil Reserve (having an estimated volume of two [b]illion barrels was federally mandated. However none has been extracted to date. Why are we still dependent on Middle East oil?

• Government cannot mandate production of oil. Oil was created over eons.
• Even if completely extracted, there's not a lot there. See my calc below.
• Bakken is solid rock. Requires lots of energy to extract oil from rock. See below.
• We're dependent on Middle East oil, because the Middle East has most of the earth's remaining oil and we're utterly dependent on oil, period.

recoverable barrels in Bakken (oil shale) per USGS: ~3000 million

barrels used in U.S. each day : ~20 million

days of U.S. supply in Bakken : ~150

See also my 'peak oil' blog entry on the Bakken.

From a recent NY Times article: New School of Thought Brings Energy to 'the Dismal Science'

Through analyzing historical production data, experts say the petroleum sector's EROI (energy return on energy invested) in this country was about 100-to-1 in 1930, meaning one had to burn approximately 1 barrel of oil's worth of energy to get 100 barrels out of the ground. By the 1990s, it is thought, that number slid to less than 36-to-1, and further down to 19-to-1 by 2006.

"If you go from using a 20-to-1 energy return fuel down to a 3-to-1 fuel, economic collapse is guaranteed," as nothing is left for other economic activity, said Nate Hagens, editor of the popular peak oil blog "The Oil Drum".

See these Oil Drum posts for in-depth analysis on oil shale: here and here.

A comment I made during the meeting, I think, sums it up:

The crunch will happen very soon when there's the realization that (the physical) supply can't match demand.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

From the L.A. Times:Before they could spout off on the airwaves, folks debated (and spit) in the open air

As for the style of the oratory, Times columnist Lee Shippey commented in 1935 that it seems "when you know a thing, you may merely speak it, but when you are rather doubtful, you must assert it so loudly as to overwhelm all opposition."

As for substance, see Slate's: Down With the People - Blame the childish, ignorant American public—not politicians—for our political and economic crisis.